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This paper provides an overview of the state of the U. economy—with a particular focus on the labor market—five years after the onset of the Great Recession. The paper begins by outlining the extent of the economic damage inflicted by the Great Recession and explaining that the anemic nature of the recovery stems from a lack of demand for goods and services.
Next, the paper draws upon contemporary, historical, and international lessons to argue that policy inaction—or worse, contractionary fiscal policy—is the greatest risk to full recovery.
Regarding the latter point, CBO has lowered its estimate of potential output in 2022 by 1.5 percent as a result of the recession (CBO 2012b).
For an economy projected to then be approaching trillion, that amounts to a 2 billion loss in productive potential in a single year.22 Without markedly faster growth, potential output will continue reverting toward depressed actual output through economic scarring. economy grew when policymakers provided monetary and fiscal support (mostly between 19), but faltered when this support was withdrawn. “Three Years into Recovery, Just How Much Has State and Local Austerity Hurt Job Growth? Misguided “Fiscal Cliff” Fears Pose Challenges to Productive Budget Negotiations: Failure to Extend Tax Cuts Before January Will Not Plunge Economy into Immediate Recession.
This is an exceptionally inefficient waste of human and economic potential—and one that adds to budget deficits. It only fully recovered when external events (i.e., the defense boom spurred by World War II) demanded a huge fiscal expansion. ” Working Economics (Economic Policy Institute blog), July 6.
As discussed previously, Japan in the 1990s and early 2000s followed a similar pattern of erratic growth due to inconsistent monetary and fiscal support, with the United Kingdom appearing to be stuck in the same pattern today.
It then explores how the recent “fiscal cliff” debate and subsequent lame-duck budget deal signal that government action to spur recovery is unlikely, and that contractionary fiscal policy will actually undermine recovery in the coming years.
Following this, the paper analyzes what it would take to move the economy back to health—and argues that the alternative of continued economic stagnation is hugely wasteful and will exacerbate projected medium- and long-term budget deficits that have been a focal point of public debate in recent years.
Conventional fiscal policy debates inside the Beltway in recent years have focused mostly on the dangers posed by unhealthily large structural budget deficits projected to be run when the economy has returned to full employment.
Unfortunately, this risk seems all but certain of coming to pass. — is a federal budget policy analyst with the Economic Policy Institute and The Century Foundation.
— Josh Bivens joined the Economic Policy Institute in 2002 and is currently the director of research and policy. He previously worked as an assistant budget analyst and research assistant with the House Budget Committee.
Key findings include: The economy has gone five years since the beginning of the Great Recession without remotely approaching a full recovery.
The recession inflicted enormous, long-lasting economic damage, particularly on the labor market and on the living standards of low- and moderate-income Americans.